Showing posts with label NHL. Show all posts
Showing posts with label NHL. Show all posts

Sunday, September 1, 2013

Five for Writing: NHL and the Entry Draft: The Perfect Petri Dish

Graphical timeline of the National Hockey Leag...
Graphical timeline of the National Hockey League (NHL), all years (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
Five for Writing is The Hockey Spy's way of bringing you some of the great gems with respect to hockey/sports writing. 

The perfect petri dish | Ideas@Beedie

Excerpt:

Peter Tingling on the importance of researching business in sports.  

"Tingling’s true research interests lie in decision-making. Over the course of his career, however, he has discovered that sport, and in particular the National Hockey League (NHL), makes for an excellent laboratory to test his hypotheses and he has become an advocate for using sport data to test organizational theories.

In the process, he has become something of an expert, in particular on the NHL draft, an event that he finds a fascinating phenomenon, with many parallels to other business sectors. “Everyone makes decisions” he says “and while I would love to be invited to compare and contrast decision making at the big five Canadian banks, so far that has not happened. On the other hand, however, the NHL has been extremely supportive. I have been to several annual drafts and seen the 30 General Managers make hundreds of high stakes career and performance decisions.”

Tingling says that sports research is important for a number of reasons. Firstly, and perhaps most obviously, professional sport is an important business sector in its own right, with huge sums of money involved at the top level. Secondly, decisions in sport generate more discussion than many other sectors, so the interest in sport demands it be examined further.

The third, and perhaps most important reason for Tingling, revolves around the transparency and availability of data in sport, and the consistency among sporting organizations that allows researchers a proxy for counter factual testing to some degree.

“In business it’s very hard to compare one company against another – it is frequently suggested that organizations are idiosyncratic,” says Tingling. “There is only one HP and only one Apple, but in the NHL there are thirty teams, all operating under the same restrictions. It is a lot easier to compare the Detroit Red Wings to the Vancouver Canucks than it is to compare Intel to Apple. So sport acts as a perfect petri dish to test business theories.”

***

"Along with fellow Beedie associate professor Michael Brydon, Tingling has presented some of his research on the NHL draft at the 2010 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, an annual conference for industry professionals to discuss the increasing role of analytics in the global sports industry. His presentation has become one of the top ten most viewed videos on the MIT Sloan website, with over 5000 views.

In addition, his paper, “Does Order Matter? An Empirical Analysis of the NHL Draft,” examined the success of NHL teams in choosing which players they draft. Published in Sport, Business and Management: An International Journal in 2011, and co-written by Beedie colleagues Kamal Masri and Matt Martell, the research found that NHL teams were missing out on potential gems in the later rounds of the draft by devoting the majority of their resources to the early rounds."



Link to full article: http://beedie.sfu.ca/ideas/2013/08/the-perfect-petri-dish/ 
Enhanced by Zemanta

Read more...

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

NHL Scouting Combine: Test Could Provide Red Flag for Injuries

Combine test could provide red flag for injuries - 2013 NHL Draft: Scouting Combine

Via NHL.com:
"[Montreal Canadiens scouting director] Trevor Timmins suggested the NHL consider FMS testing to see if we could incorporate it into our Combine," Marr said. "It doesn't necessarily pinpoint an injury; rather, it can indicate the potential or need for further examination and that's just as, if not more, important."

The test will be administered by York Fitness, which is headed by Dr. Norm Gledhill, a professor of kinesiology at York University. The FMS test, which includes a deep squat, hurdle step, lunges, shoulder mobility movements, leg raises and trunk stability pushups, likely will be held May 29-30, prior to the medical and fitness tests, which will be conducted May 31 and June 1."

Click here for full article.

Enhanced by Zemanta

Read more...

Monday, December 10, 2012

2013 NHL Draft Rankings War Room Top 90

2013 NHL Draft Rankings War Room Top 90:


Guest post by Eldon MacDonald

This is the fourth in a series of nine postings of the top 90 prospects for the 2013 NHL draft.
There are a few things that you should be aware of in the 31-40 category:
a – As I mentioned in post 1 (1 to 10), there are a number of good goalies this year, four of which I have in round 2 (Fucale, Comrie, Martin and McAdam). I have not included any in round one due to the glut of NHL quality goalies around, but that does not mean they don’t have first round skills. It is possible that one or more could get their name called on Day 1 of the 2013 NHL Entry Draft – most likely by a team with more than one 1st round pick.
b – I have also not included any Russian born players who remain in Russia in the first round due to the Russian factor, even though they may have 1st round skills – such as Valeri Nichushkin.
c – As I previously mentioned in post 3 (21 to 30), this 31 to 40 group are almost interchangeable with the 21 to 30 group as to the likelihood as to where they will end up on the draft board in June 2013. Their future play will determine the outcomes.
Eric Comrie
Tri City’s Eric Comrie challenging Zach Fucal for top goalie in the 2013 NHL Draft (Photo: WHL.ca)

Background

  1. Historically, players selected in the range of 31 to 45 have only a 33% success rate: This means that in a normal year 6 to 7 of the players below are not going to make it as an NHL regular. However, since this is a good year I believe that number will reduce substantially. This still means that there are likely to be 3 to 4 players in the group below who do not make it to the big league.
  2. Vitals: The vitals reading left to right are:
    1. Shoots
    2. Position
    3. Height and weight
    4. Birth date
    5. Citizenship
    6. League
    7. Team and player number
  3. Rankings: I have listed some alternative rankings to give you some more information so you can make your own rankings, should you wish. You should check out some of the web sites listed below if you want a different perspective on the rankings:

Round 2 – 31 to 40 – Historical success rate of about 33%


31. Fucale, Zach
a – Vitals: L – G – 6’1, 181 – 28-May-95 – CAN – QMJHL – Halifax #31
b – Rank: NHL–QMJHL-Goal-1; CR-THW–40; FC-28; ISS-Goal-1; McK-19; THG-18; THN-23; TSN-14.
c – Commentary: Dr. Cool-Tender – Calm, efficient, self-effacing netminder who makes those in front of him feel confident that he will look after his end of the game every time out. Plays every game; a student of the game like every goalie should be; set QMJHL record for most wins by a 16 year old goalie; won gold medal with Team Canada at the 2012 Ivan Hlinka Tournament – with a shutout in the gold medal game to boot. Top rated goalie in the draft on most of the rankings.
d – Twitter: @Fucale31
e – YouTube video:

32. Nichushkin, Valeri:
a – Vitals: L – L/C – 6’3, 176 – 4-Mar-95 – RUS – MHL – Chelyabinsk #43
b – Rank: NHL–RUS-1; CR-THR–20; FC-10; HP-26; ISS-Goal-12; McK-10; THG-13; THN-21; TSN-8.
c – Commentary: Mr. Game Breaker  – Tantalizing package of skating, game-breaking abilities and has drawn comparisons to Evgeni Malkin – you would think I would have in the top 10 and maybe I should. However, he signed a 3-year contract to stay in Russia so it would take an awfully brave GMto take him in the top 10. However, clubs such as Washington, Tampa Bay, Detroit and St.Louis (and others on occasion) have been known to snag some Russians bargains in the draft. Nichushkin is one the true wildcards of the 2013 draft class.
e – YouTube video: love how he blows by defensemen.
33. Horvat, Bo:
a – Vitals: L – LW/C – 6’0, 203 – 5-Apr-95 – CAN – OHL – London #53
b – Rank: NHL–OHL-5; CR-THW-26; HP-21; McK-29; THG-26; TSN-36; OHL-OHL-8
c – Commentary: Mr. Shutdown – Shutdown centre with offensive skills – skating, shot, hands, face-offs and good work ethic – has not received the offensive minutes to date to put up the points he is capable of. He won gold medal with Team Canada at the 2012 Ivan Hlinka Tournament.
d – Twitter: @BoHorvat
e – Youtube video: CTVLondon. Mark Hunter says he is going to set Bo up front on the power play so maybe he is going to get those offensive minutes yet. With Corey Perry mentoring him, who knows what good things might happen.

34. De La Rose, Jacob
a – Vitals: L – C/LW – 6’2, 183 – 20-May-95 – SWE – SWE-1 – Leksand #9
b – Rank: NHL–SWE-3; CR-THW–30; ISS-21; McK-26; THG-30; THN-18; TSN-45
c – Commentary: Mr. Everything – Goran Stubb, NHL European Director of NHL Central Scouting told NHL.com, “He’s speedy and plays a strong two-way game. He can pass and shoot at top speed and is always on the puck. He’s a strong finesse-type player”. On Team Sweden’s preliminary roster for U20 Worlds; was Captain of the Swedish U18 Team at the Ivan Hlinka Tournament.
d – Twitter: @Jacobdelarose
e – Video: Gangnam style with Filip Forsberg, a must see. I can see a trip to the White House coming like the Korean rapper Psy.

35. Bailey, Justin
a – Vitals: R – C/RW – 6’3, 190 – 1-Jul-95 – USA – OHL – Kitchener #95
b – Rank: NHL-OHL-9; CR-THW–39; TSN-43; OHL-OHL-15
c – Commentary: Mr. Elegance – Just oozes that tall, stately elegance that Jean Beliveaupossessed. Excellent skater, long reach, can score those breath-taking goals. Needs to put it all together as we have only seen glimpses of his potential to date but, oh, those glimpses were wonderful.
d – Twitter: @justinbailey95
e – YouTube video: Courtesy of NHLVideo. It sure didn’t hurt Sidney Crosby to live with Mario Lemieux so I am sure it didn’t hurt Justin Bailey to live with Pat Lafontaine.

36. Wennberg, Alexander  
a – Vitals: L – C – 6’1, 174 – 22-Sep-94 – SWE – SWE-2 – Djurgården #10
b – Rank: NHL-SWE-5; TSN-25
c – Commentary: Mr. Stealth – Really good center flying under the radar; feet, hands, vision; game. On the preliminary roster for Team Sweden for the U20 Worlds at Christmas.
d – Twitter: @winiss10
e – YouTube video: Courtesy of Simon Gunnarsson; the old “puck in the pants routine” gets ‘em every time.

37. McCoshen, Ian
a – Vitals: L – D – 6’3, 207 – 5-Aug-95 – USA – USHL – Waterloo #3
b – Rank: NHL-USHL-2; CR-THW–28; ISS-30; TSN-42
c – Commentary: McShutdown  – NHL sized body who plays a steady defensive game at the back-end and works on the power play. Should make his money as a solid shutdown defenseman who works on the PK and makes quality outlet passes.
d – Twitter: ijmccoshen3
e – YouTube video: Courtesy of USHLinteractive

38. Comrie, Eric:
a – Vitals: L – G – 6’1, 170 – 9-Jul-95 – CAN – WHL – Tri-City #1
b – Rank: NHL–WHL-Goal-1 ISS-Goal-3; McK-30; THN-30; TSN-32
c – Commentary: The Brick Stop – Another student of the game, Eric has great anticipation and vision, great lateral movement and the reflexes required to be a number one goalie. Eric is in the running to be the number one goalie selected along with Zach Fucale and Spencer Martin. When you have NHL brothers who have been shooting the puck at you since you were 4 or 5, you’ve got to be good just to make it home to the dinner table every night. And yes, his brother is the recently retired Mike Comrie; another brother is Paul Comrie, who had a short NHL career due to injury; his sister-in-law is Hilary Duff; his father (Bill) and uncles (Fred and John) founded The Brick, a major retailer of furniture, mattresses, appliances, electronics and computers in Canada.
d – Twitter: @ericcomrie1
e – Youtube video: Courtesy of TheWindsorStar

39. Kujawinski, Ryan
a – Vitals: L – C – 6’2, 205 – 30-Mar-95 – CAN – OHL – Kingston #17
b – Rank: NHL–OHL-12; CR-THW–10; ISS-23; THG-20; TSN-35; OHL-OHL-3
c – Commentary: Mr. Down Low – Size, skating, puck possession skills, good down low, great wrist shot; needs to work on his defense and utilize his size more effectively. Big things were expected of him this year as he was the 4th overall pick in the 2011 OHL draft. Started the season well with OHL Player of the Week honors but has not been able to sustain that high level of play. If he starts to pick it up again, he could be considered a potential 1st rounder; if not –well,  there is no such thing as the status quo with draft rankings this early in the season.
d – Twitter: @Kuj17
e – YouTube video:

a – Vitals: L – D – 6’2, 182 – 3-Aug-95 – CAN – WHL – Seattle #17
b – Rank: NHL-WHL-32; CR-THW-27; ISS-28; McK-28; TSN-46
c – Commentary: Mr. Motion – Size, skating, vision, those precise outlet passes, can carry the puck, good shot, shows excellent power-play skills; needs to work on his defense, upper body strength and overall physicality. Shea won gold medal with Team Canada at the 2012 Ivan Hlinka Tournament.
d – Twitter: @Theodore
e – YouTube video: Courtesy of Puckster Canada
*This post was originally published at The Hockey Writers (THW). 

Previously posted:

Part 1: 1 to 10
Part 3: 21 to 30

Next Up:

Part 5: 41 to 50
Enhanced by Zemanta

Read more...

2013 NHL Draft War Room Rankings Top 90 (Part 3: 21-30)

2013 NHL Draft War Room Rankings Top 90 (Part 3: 21-30):


Guest post by Eldon MacDonald
Part 3: 21 to 30
Kerby Rychel OHL
Kerby Rychel has surely shown that he does not need to use his last name to woo admirers. His talents have been demonstrated on several occasions since he has been in the OHL and they will surely help him be a first-round pick in the 2013 NHL Entry Draft. (Aaron Bell/OHL Images)

This is the third in a series of nine postings of the top 90 prospects for the 2013 NHL draft.
There are a few things that you should be aware of in the 21-30 category:
a – There is a lot of fluidity in the rankings and not much difference in the possibilities for the players in the 21 to 45 range in terms of where they get selected in Newark, New Jersey come next June. In the next couple of posts you will see that the rankings are all over the map for this group of players.
b – This 21-30 range is a group I usually fail at, if you consider failure to be that the NHL did not draft your selection in the 1st round. However, if you consider success as who will be the best NHL player in the long-term, then the results can reveal a different story. Go ahead, you be the judge: here is the list of players I ranked in the first round for the 2011 NHL Entry Draft that the NHL drafted in the 2ndround. If you click on the player’s name, you will get the original article I wrote about them for the 2011 NHL Entry Draft (my ranking and where they were drafted are noted below).
(i)            Kucherov, Nikita – Me = 23; NHL = 58 to Tampa Bay; 2012-13 stats: Rouyn-NorandaQMJHL– 7-6-6-12-0(+6). I still think Stevie Y got away with one here. And yes, he is on the preliminary roster of Russia for the 2012 U20 tournament.
(ii)          Khokhlachev, Alexander – Me = 25; NHL = 40 to Boston; 2012-13 stats: Moscow Spartak KHL – 23-2-3-5-18-(-1). The jury is still out on this guy but I still like his chances.
(iii)         Saad, Brandon – Me = 25; NHL = 43 to Chicago: 2012-13 stats: Rockford AHL – 15-5-4-9-2. This guy will be in Chicago this year if we have NHL hockey this year.
(iv)         Grimaldi, Rocco – Me = 27; NHL = 33 to Florida: 12-13 stats: University of North Dakota– 14-5-6-11-6. Hasn’t played much since the draft due to injury but I still believe this guy has what it takes to be an NHLer. He is on Team USA’s preliminary roster for the 2012 U20 tournament so I am sure we will be seeing a lot of him just after Christmas.
(v)          Jenner, Boone – Me = 29; NHL = 37 to Columbus; 12-13 stats: Oshawa 30-27-19-46-28-(+13) – Much improved since the draft, a player who will look good in a Team Canada uniform if the NHL doesn’t start up. Columbus is going to be real happy with this guy.
(vi)         Ritchie, Brett – Me = 30; NHL = 44 to Dallas; 12-13 stats: Niagara Falls 32-27-23-50-25-(+28). Ditto to what I said about Boone Jenner. One of my personal favourite prospects; Dallas has a real steal here.
c – I thought this was going to be easy but it just seems to get harder and harder to satisfy yourself that you have the rankings correct, or at least in the ball park. The two biggest question marks I had in the 21 to 30 group were Artturi Lehkonen and Valentin Zykov. With Artturi, the question came down to size as he certainly has the skills and results to be 1st round material. However, the combination of a solid body, not being a perimeter player and the fact that he has not yet completed the gym work to add weight and strength in his draft year (unlike most North American players) leads me to believe that the best is yet to come from Artturi and we will see Artturi’s name called on Day One of the 2013 NHL draft. For Valentin, the question was one of consistency. He certainly has the size and skills for round one but has shown too much disparity between his best games and his average games.  However, an improved consistently of late enticed me to count him as a 1st rounder.

Background
  1. 16 to 30 has 76% success rate: This means 2 to 3 of the players below are not going to make it to the show.
  2. Vitals: The vitals reading left to right are:
    1. Shoots
    2. Position
    3. Height and weight
    4. Birth date
    5. Citizenship
    6. League
    7. Team and player number
    8. Rankings: I have listed some alternative rankings to give you some more information so you can make your own rankings, should you wish. You should check out some of the web sites listed below if you want a different perspective on the rankings:

Round 1 – 21 to 30 – Historical success rate of about 76%

21. Dickinson, Jason
a – Vitals: L – C/W – 6’2, 176 – 4-Jul-95 – CAN – OHL – Guelph #11
b – Rank: NHL–OHL-6; CR-THW–33; HP-16; ISS-14; McK-16; THG-22; THN-25; TSN-17; OHL-OHL-5
c – Commentary: The Promise – This is a player who has shown the promise of much greater results. Tall at 6’2, slick hands with a compact stride, excellent vision, good in traffic, and can be one of those difference-maker type players. Show us the consistency and intensity, Jason, and top 10 is not out of reach.
d – Twitter: jdickinson_11

22. Lehkonen, Artturi
a – Vitals: L – LW – 5’10, 163 – 4-Jul-95 – FIN – FIN-1 – KalPa #62
b – Rank: NHL–FIN-3; CR-THW–27; HP-20; ISS-13; THG-24; THN-16; TSN-19
c – Commentary: Mr. I Score Goals – Fast, furious, loves to score goals but makes those delicious passes as well, great puck skills, small but not weak, hard-worker, and having considerable success in top Finnish men’s league at 17. Oh yeah, and his vision is elite. Top goal tournament goal scorer at the 2012 World U18 Championship and he is on Team Finland’s preliminary 2012 U20 roster.
d – Twitter: @arsilehkonen

23. Rychel, Kerby
a – Vitals: L – LW – 6’1, 200 – 7-Oct-94 – CAN – OHL – Windsor #16
b – Rank: NHL–OHL-3; CR-THW–18; FC-25; HP-24; ISS-20; McK-24; THG-17; THN-29; TSN-22; OHL-OHL-6
c – Commentary: The Very Good Son – Goal scorer (41 in his pre-NHL Draft eligible year), good down-low, nice hands and can play the gritty, hands-dirty game too. Started slow this year but after his line mate, Josh Ho Sang, a potential Top 10 pick in 2014, scored his first goal, the line sort of took off. How high he will go is a story yet to be told. He is the son of former NHL enforcer and Windsor Spitfire GMWarren Rychel. Kerby was a gold medal winner on Team Canada at the 2012 Ivan Hlinka Tournament.
d – Twitter: @Krychs

24. Compher, JT
a – Vitals: R – C – 6’0, 165 – 8-Apr-95 – USA – USHL – USA U18 #7
b – Rank: NHL-USA-1; CR-THW–19; FC-22; ISS-29; McK-22; THG-27; THN-20; TSN-21
c – Commentary: Mr. Energy – Drive hard, play hard, create energy, hit the corners, put up some offense, play shutdown hockey, play a good defense, be a pest – that’s JT Compher in a nutshell. JT projects as a two-way forward with a solid NHL future after he adds a little more weight and strength. Gold medal winner with Team USA at the 2012 U18 World Tournament.
d – Twitter: @Jcomph7

25. Zykov, Valentin:
a – Vitals: R – RW – 6’1, 215 – 15-May-95 – RUS – QMJHL – Baie Comeau #73
b – Rank: NHL–QMJHL-3; TSN-28
c – Commentary: The Russian High Note – When he is on a roll, he plays at such a high note that Everest and K2 seem possible – size, skating, shot, drive to the net, more irritating than black flies in Labrador, a one-man wrecking crew, and top 10 material. Unfortunately, Valentin does not always play on such a high note. Not that he is bad or disappears at other times; it is just that there is such a high level of disparity in his level of play. Lately, he has playing with greater consistency which is why I have him ranked in the top 30. However, it is those high notes which would even make Celine Dion proud that causes the excitement around this guy.

26. Thompson, Keaton  
a – Vitals: L – D – 6’1, 165 – 14-Sep-95 – USA – USHL – USA U18 #6
b – Rank: NHL-USA-5; CR-THW–41; FC-17; ISS-22; TSN-24
c – Commentary: Mr. Impressive – The smooth and easy of defense; fluid, consistent, calm under pressure, one and out passes, can join the rush, and not afraid of the rough stuff. A player who has been increasingly impressive so far with hints of what he can develop into. Go ahead, Keaton, add some weight and strength and see where this game can take you.
d – Twitter: KThomps48

27. Fasching, Hudson
a – Vitals: R – RW – 6’2, 214 – 28-Jul-95 – USA – USHL – USA U18 #22
b – Rank: NHL–USA-3; CR-THR–21; ISS-24; McK-25; THN-19; TSN-69
c – Commentary: Mr. Special – Power forward in the making with excellent size, good skating and decent hands, makes this player special. Go ahead, Hudson, add some every game consistency and drive, and you can turn that special into extra special.
d – Twitter: @Hfasching22

a – Vitals: L – LW – 6’2, 198 – 20-Dec-94 – CAN – QMJHL – Cape Breton #28
b – Rank: NHL-QMJHL-7; CR-THW-23; McK-27; TSN-44
c – Commentary: Mr. Turn and Burn – Power forward who likes to burn through defenses who has a solid physique, is solid on his skates, loves to drive the net, plays good defense, is solid no matter who the opponent may be and has that every game consistency and drive. Top of the line player on not so stellar a team (two GMs fired already this year and it isn’t even Christmas).

29. Bowey, Madison:
a – Vitals: R – D – 6’1, 194 – 22-Apr-95 – CAN – WHL – Kelowna #4
b – Rank: NHL–WHL-10; CR-THW–29; FC-26; HP-22; THG-29; TSN-40
c – Commentary: The Next One – Skating, vision, good in all zones, likes to join the rush, strong upper-body strength and plays on a good team which is known for developing high-end defensemen such as Shea Weber, Josh Gorges, Tyler Myers, Luke Schenn amongst others.
d – Twitter: @m_bows4

30. Santini, Steve
a – Vitals: R – D – 6’2, 205 – 7-Mar-95 – USA – USHL – USA U18 #16
b – Rank: NHL-USA-4; CR-THW–56; FC-23; HP-18; ISS-16; THG-23; THN-24; TSN-33
c – Commentary: Mr. Impact – The big hitter; Steve can play down and gritty or up on the power play. Santini is a very good skater with excellent hockey sense; the combination of size and skating make this guy a player to watch.
*This post was originally published at The Hockey Writers (THW).

Next Up:

Part 4: 31 to 40

Previous:

Part 1: The Top 10

Part 2: 11 to 20

Enhanced by Zemanta

Read more...

NHL 2013 Draft War Room Top 90 December Rankings (Part 1: Top 10)

2011 NHL Entry Draft
2011 NHL Entry Draft (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
NHL 2013 Draft War Room Top 90 December Rankings (Part 1: Top 10):


Guest post by Eldon MacDonald
This is the first in a series of nine articles ranking the top 90 prospects for the 2013 NHL draft. This series are the musings of one hockey fan, for other hockey fans, with the intention of making them memorable enough to enable even the casual reader to remember the prospect’s name when it comes up at the draft next June.
Some will prove successful; ultimately some will not. I am hoping to achieve a better success rate than the 19% chance the NHL teams currently have in selecting an NHL player in the fourth round.

NHL Entry Draft Historical Success Rate

In looking back at the 2003 to 2005 entry drafts, it is interesting to note the success rate for each of the rounds. By my calculations (players that are NHL regulars, for the most part; your list could be slightly different), here are the figures:
01-15: 82% (03-93%; 04-73%; 05-80%)
16-30: 76% (03-93%; 04-67%; 05-67%)
31-45: 33% (03-33%; 04- 7%; 05-60%)
46-60: 24% (03-33%; 04-33%; 05- 7%)
61-90: 24% (03-33%; 04-20%; 05-20%)
91-120: 19% (03-10%; 04-30%; 05-17%)
120-150: 11% (03-10%; 04-13%; 05-10%)
151-180: 9% (03-13%; 04-13%; 05- 0%)
181-210: 10% (03-17%; 04- 3%; 05-10%)
Over 210: 12% (03-13%; 04-10%; 05-15%)
Overall: 23% (03-25%; 04-20%; 05-23%) 

The 2013 Draft

In looking over the 2013 draft, there a number of things that stand out:
  1. This is a good draft class – especially for forwards. Where were all the good forwards for the 2012 draft; they were still in the womb, holding out 2013 draft eligibility.
  2. This is a QMJHL-heavy draft – This year the Dub has their usual plethora of defensemen but it is the “Q” which is producing quality talent at an astonishing rate. Usually the scrub of the draft, this year the QMJHL is likely to put anywhere from 7 to 10 prospects in the 1st round and still have some left over for rounds two and three. The OHL, however, is having an off-year. While it still is producing a large quantity of prospects, the league does not dominate the high-end part of the draft like it usually does. As for US players, most of the high-end ones are in the CHL (Jones, Erne), but there are a number of Team USA and USHL players who have a chance of crowding the end of round one. As for Europe, Sweden is producing at their usual high rate of late. Finland could produce up to 3 first rounders (Barkov, Ristolainen Lehkonen). Russia is generally having an off year (other than Nicushkin) unless you include their countrymen playing in the CHL (Zadorov, Zykov).
  3. The goalies – Last year two goalies were selected in the first round. This year there are three goalies at this point who have a chance of being first rounders – Fucale, Comrie and Martin. More may emerge in the second half of the season. However, I have not included any of them in my first round rankings. This should not be considered a reflection on the abilities of these three goalies, but more a consideration that there is a glut of goalies of NHL caliber in the pipeline at the moment. Teams who have two or more first rounders make good candidates for taking a goalie in the first round. Thus, we should not discount the possibility of goalies being selected come the Friday night of the draft.

The Top 10 in 2013

  1. Top 15 has 82% success rate: At an 82% success rate, 1 to 2 players on the list below are not likely to ever become regular NHL players. I wonder which players will not be on the 82% side.
  2. Vitals: The vitals reading left to right are:
    • Shoots
    • Position
    • Height and weight
    • Birth date
    • Citizenship
    • League
    • Team and player number
  3. Rankings: You should check out some of the web sites listed below if you want a different perspective on the rankings:

Nathan MacKinnon and Jonathan Drouin: The dynamic 2013 NHL draft eligible duo from the Halifax Mooseheads of the QMJHL (Photo: Mike Dembeck)

Round 1: 1 to 10 – Historical success rate = 82%

a – Vitals: L – C – 6’0, 182 – 1-Sep-95 – CDN – QMJHL – Halifax #22
b – 2012-13 Stats: 26 22 34 46 33 +26
c – Rank: NHL–QMJHL-1; CR-THW–1; FC-1; HP-1; ISS-1; McK-1; THG-1; THN-1; TSN-2
d – CommentaryMr. MacMoney – Generational talent; clutch scorer; able to elevate his game at key times; and an intensity like “The Rocket”, Maurice Richard.
e – Twitter: @Mackinnon9

2. Jones, Seth
a – Vitals: R – D – 6’4, 206 – 3-Oct-94 – USA – WHL – Portland #3
b – 2012-13 Stats: 25 7 12 19 21 +20
c – Rank: NHL–WHL-1; CR-THW–2; FC-2; HP-2; ISS-2; McK-2; THG-2; THN-2; TSN-1
d – CommentaryThe Bear Back There – Don’t roil him or you will pay. Franchise blueliner with bear-like size who can take over a game. Son of Popeye Jones, former long-time NBA player.
e – Twitter: @seth_jones04

3. Monahan, Sean
a – Vitals: L – C – 6’2, 193 – 12-Oct-94 – CAN – OHL – Ottawa #20
b – 2012-13 Stats: 24 12 24 36 8 -3
c – Rank: NHL–ONT-1; CR-THW–3; FC-5; HP-3; ISS-5; McK-5; THG-4; THN-5; TSN-6; OHL–OHL-1
d – CommentaryMr. Everything – All around centre who can do everything and has the size and leadership that teams are so desperate for.
e – Twitter: @Monahan20

a – Vitals: L – LW – 5’11, 190 – 28-Mar-95 – CDN – QMJHL – Halifax #27
b – 2012-13 Stats: 20 15 16 41 14 +19
c – Rank: NHL–QMJHL-2; CR-THW–7; FC-6; HP-4; ISS-4; McK-9; THG-5; THN-7; TSN-13
d – CommentaryMr. Smooth and Easy – Vision, passing, stick-handling are sublime; makes everyone around him better, even the dynamo named Nathan MacKinnon.
e – Twitter: @jodrouin27

5. Barkov, Alexander
a – Vitals: L – C – 6’2, 205 – 2-Sep-95 – FIN – FIN-1 – Tappara #16
b – 2012-13 Stats: 27 13 14 27 4 +9
c – Rank: NHL–FIN-1; CR-THW–6; FC-3; HP-5; ISS-3; McK-4; THG-3; THN-3; TSN-3
d – Commentary: Big Finnish centre who can skate, pass, shoot and score; having considerable success in top Finnish men’s league, the SM-liiga.
e – Twitter: @Barkovsasha95

6. Lindholm, Elias
a – Vitals: R – C – 6’0, 192 – 2-Dec-94 – SWE – SWE-1 – Brynas #28
b – 2012-13 Stats: 28 5 12 17 2 -2
c – Rank: NHL-SWE-1; CR-THW–11; FC-4; HP-6; ISS-10; McK-3; THG-6; THN-4; TSN-5
d – CommentaryCalle Järnkrok’s cousin has the size, smarts and defensive acumen to be one of the most sought after players in this draft.
e – Twitter: @lindholmelias

7. Shinkaruk, Hunter
a – Vitals: L – LW – 5’11, 175 – 13-Oct-94 – CDN – WHL – Medicine Hat #9
b – 2012-13 Stats: 25 17 21 38 8 +3
c – Rank: NHL–WHL-2; CR-THW–4; FC-8; HP-13; ISS-7; McK-7; THG-7; THN-9; TSN-11
d – CommentaryMr. Fast and Furious – A go-to scorer with elusive speed.
e – Twitter: @H_S_9

8. Ristolainen, Rasmus
a – Vitals: R – D – 6’3, 203 – 27-Oct-94 – FIN – FIN-1 – TPS #55
b – 2012-13 Stats: 24 2 5 7 18 -5
c – Rank: NHL–FIN-2; CR-THW–12; FC-7; HP-7; ISS-8; McK-6; THG-8; THN-8; TSN-19
d – Commentary: Goran Stubb, NHL Director of European Scouting, told NHL.com:
“He’s a mobile, strong, offensive-minded defenseman with very good puck-handling and passing skills. He’s young, but he knows how to use his size and strength. He’s one of the best young defensemen in Europe in his age group. He’s a leader on the ice and plays with confidence”.

9. Pulock, Ryan
a – Vitals: R – D – 6’1, 211 – 6-Oct-94 – CAN – WHL – Brandon #2
b – 2012-13 Stats: 24 9 16 25 12 +14
c – Rank: NHL–WHL-3; CR-THW–5; FC-9; HP-14; ISS-15; McK-8; THG-10; THN-14; TSN-9
d – CommentaryThe Captain – Elite defenseman with NHL shot and vision. Shows leadership and yes, he is the Captain of the Brandon Wheat Kings.
e – Twitter: @rpulock2

10. Nurse, Darnell
a – Vitals: R – D – 6’5, 184 – 4-Feb-95 – CAN – OHL – Sault Ste. Marie #25
b – 2012-13 Stats: 28 5 15 20 64 +9
c – Rank: NHL–OHL-2; CR-THW–24; FC-12; HP-19; ISS-9; McK-23; THG-14; THN-12; TSN-23; OHL-OHL-2
d – CommentaryDr. Defense Prongeresque like blueliner with like-minded size, skating and in the process of developing like-minded temperament. Father (Richard) played football for the Hamilton Tiger Cats of the CFL and uncle (Donovan McNabb) for the Washington Redskins of the NFL.
e – Twitter: @drtwofive
*This article was originally published at The Hockey Writers 
Next Up:
Enhanced by Zemanta

Read more...
Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...

The Hockey News

The Hockey News

Elite Prospects - Rumours

The Goalie Guild

Elite Prospects - Confirmed Transfers

Elliotte Friedman - CBC/HNIC

  © Distributed by Blogger Templates. Blogger templates Newspaper III by Ourblogtemplates.com 2008

Back to TOP